Invention:
This software includes a method to evaluate and select input data for subseasonal to seasonal time scale regional climate modeling. Euopean Center of Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast ensembles are selected as forcing for the Weather Research and Forecasting model at convective permitting spatial resolution. The use of ECMWF forcing, as compared to other forcing source, significantly improved forecast capabilities of convective weather extremes at extended forecast lead times.
A demonstration of this technology for the Arabian Peninsula is described in: Risanto, C.B., Chang, HI.,Luong, T.M. et al. Retrospective sub-seasonal forecasts of extreme precipitation events in the Arabian Peninsula using convective-permitting modeling. Clim Dyn (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06336-8.
Background:
More reliable forecast systems are needed for early warning of extreme weather events, such as heavy precipitation, flash flooding, and heat waves. Climate changes are challenging societal resilience and economies. Improved extended weather models and forecasting are needed to mitigate risk and to inform infrastructure needs.
Applications:
- Weather forecasting
- Climate forecasting
- Resilience analysis
Advantages:
- Increased reliability for extreme weather forecasting
- Extended forecast times
- Large-scale regional applicability
